An irreverent and invaluable guide to our new era of economic competition, written by Financial Times columnist and podcaster Soumaya Keynes and Chad P. Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. We used to take trade for granted. Trillions of dollars of goods and services crossed borders each year, made possible by a global, rules-based system. Nobody paid too much attention to supply chains: they just worked. Now we are in an era of trade conflict and can no longer avoid the fight. Trump’s latest tariff announcement can jolt markets, push prices up, and sour decades-long alliances. China’s export restrictions on rare earths could bring the West’s car production to a halt. Curbs on trade in cutting-edge chips could determine who wins the AI race. Keynes and Bown argue that the rules of the game have been abandoned, and a different strategy is needed. Yearning for the old approach to start working again isn’t an option. Countries must adapt, which means learning from history, economics, and from each other—including China. The stakes couldn't be higher. The authors explore the history, the players, and the rules of trade, and consider how we can prepare for what the future might hold. What would all-out economic warfare look like? Could trade wars lead to hot wars? What can the West learn from China? Accessible and leavened with an appealing wit, this book explains how to win a trade war, where “winning” might mean minimizing the losses, and the weapons that we wield—subsidies, stockpiles, export restrictions and, of course, tariffs—have the potential to hurt us, too. How to Win a Trade War is the guide to one of the global economy’s biggest challenges.

Recommended on 1 episode:

The China Shock 2.0

Brad Setser follows Chinese trade closer than just about anyone else on earth, and he thinks we’re in the early days of a China Shock 2.0. The first China Shock was when China came to dominate low-end manufacturing in the 2000s, filling American shelves with cheap clothes, toys and electronics, while devastating American factory towns. This new China Shock could be even more destabilizing. China now dominates advanced manufacturing: electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels. It’s outcompeting nearly all high-end manufacturing around the world, and other countries are just starting to feel the pain. And China isn’t slowing down. It’s moving into software, too. Its frontier A.I. models are neck and neck with American ones. China’s success poses a serious threat to the economies and domestic politics of countries around the world. So what should those countries do about it? Setser is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.He served in top trade and economic roles in the Biden and Obama administrations. And he is widely cited across the field as one of the top analysts of China’s economy and trade practices.

Books recommended:

• 📕  The Party: The Secret World of China’s Communist Rulers – A Revelatory Inside Look at the CCP's Grip on Power by Richard McGregor
• 📘  The Volatility Machine: Emerging Economics and the Threat of Financial Collapse by Michael Pettis
• 📗  How to Win a Trade War: An Optimistic Guide to an Anxious Global Economy by Soumaya Keynes, Chad P Bown

Brad Setser Aug. 21, 2026 3 books recommended

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