In a campaign for state or local office these days, you’re as likely today to hear accusations that an opponent advanced Obamacare or supported Donald Trump as you are to hear about issues affecting the state or local community. This is because American political behavior has become substantially more nationalized. American voters are far more engaged with and knowledgeable about what’s happening in Washington, DC, than in similar messages whether they are in the South, the Northeast, or the Midwest. Gone are the days when all politics was local. With The Increasingly United States , Daniel J. Hopkins explores this trend and its implications for the American political system. The change is significant in part because it works against a key rationale of America’s federalist system, which was built on the assumption that citizens would be more strongly attached to their states and localities. It also has profound implications for how voters are represented. If voters are well informed about state politics, for example, the governor has an incentive to deliver what voters—or at least a pivotal segment of them—want. But if voters are likely to back the same party in gubernatorial as in presidential elections irrespective of the governor’s actions in office, governors may instead come to see their ambitions as tethered more closely to their status in the national party.

Recommended on 1 episode:

These Political Scientists Surveyed 500,000 Voters. Here Are Their Unnerving Conclusions.

How does the popularity of a president’s policies impact his or her party’s electoral chances? Why have Latinos — and other voters of color — swung toward the Republican Party in recent years? How does the state of the economy influence how people vote, and which economic metrics in particular matter most? We can’t answer those questions yet for 2022. But we can look at previous elections for insights into how things could play out. John Sides and Lynn Vavreck — political scientists at Vanderbilt and U.C.L.A., respectively — have routinely written some of the most comprehensive analyses of American presidential contests. Their new book, “The Bitter End: The 2020 Presidential Campaign and the Challenge to American Democracy” — written with Chris Tausanovitch — is no exception. The book’s findings are built on top of numerous layers of data and analysis, including a massive survey project that involved interviewing around 500,000 Americans between July 2019 and January 2021. We discuss the core questions of 2020: How did Donald Trump come so close to winning? Why did Latinos swing toward Republicans? What role did Black Lives Matter protests have on the outcome? How did the strange Covid economy of 2020 affect the election results? And of course, what does all of this portend for the midterm elections in November?

Books recommended:

• 📕  The Increasingly United States: How and Why American Political Behavior Nationalized (Chicago Studies in American Politics) by Daniel J. Hopkins
• 📘  Groundbreakers: How Obama's 2.2 Million Volunteers Transformed Campaigning in America by Elizabeth Mckenna, Hahrie Han, Elizabeth McKenna, Jeremy Bird
• 📗  The Loud Minority: Why Protests Matter in American Democracy (Princeton Studies in Political Behavior) by Professor Daniel Q. Gillion
• 📙  Rock Me on the Water: 1974--the Year Los Angeles Transformed Movies, Music, Television and Politics by Ronald Brownstein
• 📕  State of Terror: A Novel by Louise Penny, Hillary Rodham Clinton
• 📘  Surrender: 40 Songs, One Story by Bono

Lynn Vavreck , John Sides Oct. 28, 2022 6 books recommended

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